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Tuesday, May 8, 2007

The Dynamic of Price Movement Revisited

Let’s refer back to our analogy using a vehicle on the highway to look at how market price behaves under market pressure and traded volume. When buyers are driving the price up continually, forming an upward price trend, it is the buying pressure, which results in strength by buyers in the market. Buyers are driving the vehicle down the highway (and up in price) and the strength of the buyer is at 100%. Eventually, there comes a point where the sellers will decide to show some form of strength and attempt to dominate by placement of some quantity or supply at the ask. Alternatively (or in addition to providing supply at the ask), the seller may attempt to take advantage of buyer’s strength and attempt to gain strength back by selling at a high bid price. By using the BPL, the trader using MarketDelta™ can observe this by seeing a trade take place at the bid while price is steadily rising. This can be viewed as a challenge by the seller; he is taking an aggressive action in the face of the 100% strength by the buyer, or put another way, he is selling into the 100% strength of the buyer. At that moment that reflection of sellers’ strength is read through Delta growth. The seller may not succeed in this challenge to buyer’s strength. You will note that this aggressive action by seller may or may not create a price shift causing the bid price to become the ask price. To influence the price to the seller’s advantage, the seller must gain strength first by taking away the buyer’s available bid and replacing the bid price with the seller’s available supply at the ask.

Looking at these price dynamics as a whole, realize that for every trade, there is an aggressor, or a driver—whether buyer or seller—for every vehicle on the highway. The seller or buyer who is driving the vehicle is motivated for reasons known to him to take this aggressive action in a trade. When the trader takes aggressive action, MarketDelta™ shows this as traded volume on the bid or ask side as the case may be. For this trader taking an aggressive action by controlling the vehicle, there is a possibility that this aggressive action will cause an intended price shift, and the trader will be able to continue to drive on the highway in the direction he desires. As seen above, strength can result from volume or price velocity, as either can provide fuel for the vehicle. Both forms of strength can serve as fuel for the vehicle, causing the tires to rotate. Although the tires are rotating and attempting to move the vehicle, often the tires will rotate without gaining any traction to enable movement, while at other times the tires make solid contact with the highway and the vehicle is driven in the desired direction. The point behind creating a picture of tires rotating on the vehicle is that a trader using MarketDelta™ can watch the aggressive buyers, for instance, take the ask with quantifying results, i.e., traded ask volume. However, this volume may move the vehicle effectively, or possibly it will be unable to move the vehicle at all. To see which of the two outcomes takes place, the trader using MarketDelta™ can observe the effect on price through use of Indicator/ Price Chart while referring to the Footprint window. When the MarketDelta Indicator remains flat and yet the vehicle is moving and price is being driven up or down, a trader can see the market environment in a dynamic way, and at the same time note what changes to the market environment take place. Not only will the price line plot be diverging away from the MarketDelta Indicator value line plot, but also a trader will observe Footprints being drawn more rapidly, reflecting this velocity. In the opposite circumstance, aggressive actions may be taking place, but price is not responding to these market actions. Here, a trader using MarketDelta™ can observe the price line remaining relatively flat or unchanged, while volume/market pressure is being indicated by a sloping plotline of the MarketDelta Indicator value. Footprints are stable in their vertical movement, and growth of pressure will be indicated through the change in color of Footprints showing an increase in volume.

Using MarketDelta™ to observe the market environment manifest itself through the BPL, the Footprint chart, the MarketDelta Indicator, and the Indicator/Price chart, a trader will see the result of these aggressive actions and whether they accomplish their desired result in affecting price action. When an aggressive action is made by the buyer or seller, this will be indicated by the Marketdelta Indicator. By watching the BPL, the Footprints, and by observing the Price/Indicator window, a trader can see to what degree aggressive action by either side in the market is required to cause the corresponding desired shift in price. Having this information continually paint a picture of the current market environment at a given moment, plus the ability to see how the market environment has changed from past trades, will allow a trader to constantly monitor: (i) the buying and selling pressure currently being exerted, (ii) the volume being traded on either side of the market, and (iii) how and if this volume or velocity by either buyer or seller is able to affect the market accordingly. From this more complete picture of the market environment, a trader will learn to know what side of the market the probability for success lays.Conclusion

By being aware of the many market variables and elements as depicted by MarketDelta™, a trader will have the most complete depiction of the market environment available to the online trader. Throughout this article, it should be clear however that MarketDelta™ is not a system, but rather the market environment from which more successful systems can be cultivated and developed. As with anything that is rewarding, to use MarketDelta™ to its fullest beneficial extent will require time spent observing this new market environment. Through continual observation of the market variables in the unique environment provided by MarketDelta™, a trader will learn to become an integral part of the market environment as it relates to his trading, by acting with the market as opposed to against it. A trader must understand that the many changes and rhythms within the market environment observed through MarketDelta™ will gradually allow an insight to be part of the flow of the market. MarketDelta™ provides the online trader an accurate painting of a particular product’s environment, within which he will learn how to exist so as to increase the probability that his trades will be successful. The goal of MarketDelta™ is to increase the awareness of a trader’s landscape; a place to merge trader and environment so as to see what previously could not be seen.

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